Accounting for China’s Long-term Growth: How Important is Demographic Change?
نویسندگان
چکیده
As a complement to the literature, this paper studies the effects of changes in demographic structures on China’s growth from 1957 to 2007. A general equilibrium overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility is employed in order to measure the contribution of demographic changes. The main findings are (1) the demographic change (a sharp decline in fertility) was the main engine of China’s growth in the pre-reform period (1957-1982); (2) in the post-reform period (19822007), technological progress became more important than demographic changes. In the later stage, technological progress accounted for about 84 percent of the simulated growth rate of per capita output, while the demographic change merely accounted for 16 percent. JEL Classification: O11, O53, O20.
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